Financial analysts and the financial media often refer to U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) as risk-free investments. And it's true. The United States government has never defaulted on a debt or missed a payment on a debt. You would have to envision the utter collapse of the government to find a scenario that would involve losing any of the principal invested in a T-bond.
Key Takeaways
- There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds.
- There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere.
- Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.
The crucial word above is "principal." In investing, the safest investments have the lowest returns. And accepting a low return is in itself a risky decision.
Understanding U.S. Treasury Bond Risk
Most investments in debt, from corporate bonds to mortgage-backed securities, carry some degree of default risk. The investor accepts the risk that the borrower will be unable to keep up the interest payments or return the principal invested.
In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment.
This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. That means the Federal Reserve. Investors know that the Treasury Department will pay them back even if the Fed's balance sheet is ugly.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
Inflation
Every economy experiences inflation from time to time, to one degree or another. T-bonds have a low yield, or return on investment. A little bit of inflation can erase that return, and a little more can effectively eat into your savings.
That is, an investment of $1,000 in a T-bond for one year at 1% interest would get you $1,010. But if inflation was 2%, the initial investment when it is returned will have the buying power of a little under $990.
Interest Rate Risk
When interest rates rise, the market value of debt securities tends to drop. This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.
Opportunity Costs
All financial decisions, even T-bond investments, carry opportunity costs.
An investor who purchases a $1,000 T-bond loses the chance to invest or spend that $1,000 elsewhere. The investor might have been better off putting $1,000 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offered a greater potential for return along with a greater risk of principal loss. For that matter, the investor might have bought a new laptop for $1,000. If inflation continues at its current pace, that model will cost $1,025 a year from now.
FAQs
Treasury bonds are widely considered a risk-free investment because the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. However, investors should understand that even U.S. government bonds have interest rate risk. That is, if market interest rates rise, the prices of these bonds will fall, as they did throughout 2022.
What is the main risk of owning treasury bonds? ›
A government bond does present market risk if sold prior to maturity, and also carries some inflation risk — the risk that its comparatively lower return will not keep pace with inflation.
What is the problem with Treasury bonds? ›
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
Is it safe to put money in Treasury bonds? ›
U.S. Treasury bonds are fixed-income securities. They're considered low-risk investments and are generally risk-free when held to maturity. That's because Treasury bonds are issued with the full faith and credit of the federal government.
What are the disadvantages of treasury I bonds? ›
One main limitation is that these bonds cannot be bought or sold on the secondary market. This means that once you purchase an I Bond, you are committed to holding it until maturity or redeeming it with the Treasury, subject to certain restrictions. Another potential downside is the purchase limit.
Is it better to buy Treasuries or CDs? ›
While Treasurys boast higher rates than CDs, you can still score a generous annual percentage yield (APY) on a CD by shopping around. Typically, online banks offer higher interest rates than brick-and-mortar ones. Some of the best CDs have APYs that top 5%.
Are Treasuries safer than CDs? ›
CDs and Treasuries Offer a High Degree of Safety
Both CDs and Treasuries are considered extremely safe investments. Treasuries are backed directly by the federal government, while CDs are covered by FDIC insurance – which is also backed by the federal government.
Why not to buy Treasury bonds? ›
Interest Rate Risk
Just as prices can rise in an economy, so too can interest rates. As a result, Treasury bonds are exposed to interest rate risk. If interest rates are rising in an economy, the existing T-bond and its fixed interest rate may underperform newly issued bonds, which would pay a higher interest rate.
Why are my Treasury bonds losing money? ›
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Is now a good time to buy Treasury bonds? ›
This time has been different: The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering in a range above where it was when the Fed last hiked in July 2023. We believe the historical relationship should hold and we expect the 10-year Treasury ultimately to decline modestly from current levels as growth and inflation slow.
But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered. If you're interested in investing in Treasury bonds or have other questions about your portfolio, consider speaking with a financial advisor.
Do you pay taxes on Treasury bonds? ›
Interest from Treasuries is generally taxable at the federal level, but not at the state level. Interest from munis is generally exempt from federal taxes, and if you live in the state where the bond was issued, the interest may also be exempt from state taxes.
Which is better, Treasury bills or bonds? ›
Compared with Treasury notes and bills, Treasury bonds usually pay the highest interest rates because investors want more money to put aside for the longer term. For the same reason, their prices, when issued, go up and down more than the others.
Can Treasury bonds lose value? ›
If a bond is held past its maturity, the federal government remains responsible for the debt. However, savings bonds that are held past their maturity date do not continue to earn interest and may actually lose value due to inflation.
How do you avoid tax on Treasury bonds? ›
You can skip paying taxes on interest earned with Series EE and Series I savings bonds if you're using the money to pay for qualified higher education costs. That includes expenses you pay for yourself, your spouse or a qualified dependent. Only certain qualified higher education costs are covered, including: Tuition.
How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 30 years? ›
How to get the most value from your savings bonds
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Strong economic data and worries over sticky inflation are pushing investors to reassess how deeply the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year, fueling weakness in the U.S. government bond market.
Why high interest rates are bad for Treasury bonds? ›
Alternatively, if prevailing interest rates are increasing, older bonds become less valuable because their coupon payments are now lower than those of new bonds being offered in the market. The price of these older bonds drops and they are described as trading at a discount.
Who issues US Treasury bonds and what is their purpose? ›
Treasury bonds (T-bonds) are one of four types of debt issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to finance the U.S. government's spending activities.
Why do Treasury bonds affect mortgage rates? ›
As mentioned above, the bond market and mortgage rates have an inverse relationship because mortgage lenders compete with Treasury bonds on the secondary market. As bond prices increase, mortgage rates decrease. And the reverse is true: As bond prices decrease, mortgage rates increase.
